Unemployment growth in the Russian Federation will be followed by crash of the social state – the forecast

If unemployment in the Russian Federation accepts mass character, having fallen outside the limits 10−12 % disorganisation of all social and economic processes is possible, the sociologist, the professor of the Moscow Higher school of social and economic sciences (МВШСН) Boris Kagarlitsky considers. He has declared it on March, 27th to the correspondent of news agency REGNUM, making comments on forecasts that every second company of the Russian Federation is going to reduce quantity of employees. As the expert has explained, the Russian social system is not adapted absolutely not for mass unemployment.

«The western variant of capitalism includes developed enough system of institutes for protection of the unemployed and even uses unemployment as an element of management of a labour market. In the Russian variant of capitalism against a low salary and strange system of residual social guarantees unemployment appears the heaviest stress for all social and economic system, — considers Kagarlitsky. — If unemployment will accept mass character and it will fall outside the limits 10−22 %, and more than probably I think that there will be a collapse of system of the social help and full disorganisation of social and economic processes. Italy has failed for the account of a collapse of system of medicine. The Italian public health services have fallen under the pressure of weight of people which have gone to hospitals. In the Russian Federation, in my opinion, there will be an opposite situation. The medicine will stand (with a pressure and a scratch), and here systems of the residual social state will fail».
Differently, as the expert has explained, in Russia there will be an Italian effect, but not in public health services sphere, and in sphere «социалки».

Let’s remind, as informed news agency REGNUM, earlier former deputy minister of work and employment of the population of the Russian Federation Pavel Kudjukin has declared to the correspondent of news agency REGNUM that in a situation of the economic crisis caused among other factors and flash коронавируса, the Russian employers will solve the problems for the account of the worker.

Read earlier in this plot: to the Labour market in the Russian Federation have predicted «the hardest stress» and a wave of reductions

Read plot development: In Russia have admitted a train of the «not proved» bankruptcies

THE HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
The most discussed problem of the world market of work is growing year from a year quantity of labour migrants: by 2018 it has exceeded 164 million persons. Inflow of migrants is characteristic now not only for the advanced western countries, but also for the states of the former USSR, Brazil and even China.
In Russia number of labour has reached peak in 2016. Though officially unemployment since 2013 is kept at level hardly above 5 %, domestic experts even more often speak about the phenomenon of working poverty when employment does not rescue workers and their family from poverty. Thus after 2014 Rosstatom marks the general decline of productivity of work.

In Russia there are many small companies which simply do not presume to leave to itself in a minus, the sociologist, the professor of the Moscow higher school of social and economic sciences (МВШСН) Boris Kagarlitsky considers. He has declared it on March, 27th to the correspondent of news agency REGNUM, making comments on results of poll spent by the Center of strategic workings out which experts have found out that in Russia every fifth company (20 %) plans to cut down salaries to employees because of crisis. As believes Kagarlitsky, this data is true, but the real situation can be much worse, as it is necessary to accept in calculation and secondary effect.

«Imagine — the fifth part of the companies will start to reduce salaries to employees, — the expert has told. — as it will affect a labour market and in the market basically? It will lead to that people will not spend money, will not buy the goods and services. The second wave of reductions and dismissals becomes result of it. And, most likely, scheme ЦСР does not consider a situation self-occupied and small business which frequently work by an unprofitableness principle. In Russia many the small companies which simply feed itself. These companies cannot leave in a minus. Big can, and these are not present!»


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As has explained Kagarlitsky, that has described ЦСР is a first wave of crisis which the second will follow. Because of that that one companies have reduced the workers or have reduced their salaries, others will suffer also. Therefore, according to Kagarlitsky, the labour market will endure the hardest stress.

Let’s remind, as informed news agency REGNUM, in Russia every fifth company (20 %) plans to cut down salaries to employees because of the crisis caused COVID-19.

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