Disintegration of Russia — hypothetical scenarios and forecasts of disintegration of the Russian Federation as uniform state, and also opinion and the analysis of consequences of this event.
Russia, as well as any other country, tests as integration, and dezintegracionnye processes, and the last bear in themselves threat of disintegration of the country. This theme actively discussed E.Kholmogorov, G.Kasparov, M.Leontev, P.Svjatenkov, K.Remchukov, K.Rodionov, A.Yeliseyev, I.Prokopenko, G.Gref, M.Kalashnikov, M.Remizov, M.Deljagin, A.Fursov, G.Malinetsky, V.Solovej, S.Kurginjan, A.Prokhanov, E.Limonov, M.Shevchenko, N.Narochnitsky, V.Averyanov, V.Tretjakov, I.Jakovenko, D.A.Medvedev.
Appeals to separatism in the Russian Federation can be regarded as a criminal offence and to be pursued according to the current legislation.
Administrative card of the USSR of 1989
In the Russian history already there were some precedents when considerable territories disappeared, and the political system fell. The first disintegration of the Russian empire, in 1917 after February revolution the active processes of decomposition occurring in economy, social structure, public and political spheres of the Russian empire have begun that finally has led to the termination of existence of the given state. It left the territories which later have become by a part of the independent states such as Poland, Finland and Romania. The second disintegration of the USSR, in 1991 has occurred disintegration of the USSR, it has led to independence of 15 republics USSR (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenia and Tajikistan, Russia and Moldova) and to their occurrence in world political arena as independent states. In 1990th years from the Russian Federation a number of regions wanted to separate: The Chechen wars (with actually independent Chechen republic Ichkeria), attempt to create the Ural republic, Tatarstan which has held a referendum about the state sovereignty and has fixed in the constitution, too it is possible to carry the sovereignty to dezintegracionnym to processes which, nevertheless, it was possible to stop.
The possible reasons of disintegration.
The main research assistant of Institute of philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences V.N.Shevchenko at an estimation of a review of O.Ju.Maslov «Disintegration of Russia in the XXI-st century beginning in statements of contemporaries» notices that in it the big selection of articles of authors on a theme of disintegration of Russia — from the convinced supporters of idea is collected that disintegration of Russia is almost inevitable and has already begun, to supporters of idea of artificial and deliberate attempts of disorder of the country.
The main reason dezintegracionnyx processes and possible disintegration of Russia on V.N.Shevchenko’s survey work «the Future of Russia: Strategy of philosophical judgement» absence of national idea or the project (similar, for example, to communism in the USSR) which would unite all people of Russia is allocated. The Russian statehood is in a transition state in which all processes became more active: as integration, and dezintegracionnye.
By the accompanying reasons of possible disintegration of Russia in V.N.Shevchenko’s work are listed: ksenofobskie moods («Russia for Russian»), aspiration of the people of Russia to separatism, transformation of national republics to the high-grade states.
In the report to Izborsky club the group of analysts led by A.Kobjakovym names split lines in a modern Russian society which can potentially lead to state disintegration: a social and economic inequality, international relations, alienation of elite from the people, opposition of «a creative class» to other society.
Culturologist I.Jakovenko dezintegracionnyx processes considers as the main reason non-uniformity of process of market modernisation in different regions of Russia therefore economic isolation of these regions from each other amplifies. Yakovenko allocates following regions on which, in its opinion, the Russian Federation can break up: the North and the South of Russia, Siberia, the North Caucasus and intercontinental border.
In V.N.Shevchenko’s article the opinion is resulted that actually disintegration has already begun, and its signs are: legal e’ksterritorial’nost’, replacement of persons of not title nation in national republics from a state machinery, radikalizaciya Islam.
According to mathematician George Malinetsky, exists five possible reasons of disintegration of Russia:
The big difference between level of the income of various social strata;
Rupture between various regions on income level;
Complexity of communications between the various regions of the country which are a consequence of backwardness of an infrastructure;
Break of generations;
konfessional’nyj and national disintegration.
The American political scientist, the founder and the head of private razvedyvatelno-analytical organisation Stratfor George Friedman has declared that Russia disintegration after 2020 owing to its excessive dependence on the prices for hydrocarbons and absence of strong economy waits.